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Wheat production: anticipating climate risks in France up to 2100
PRESS RELEASE - Climate change is rapidly altering wheat growing conditions in France. Researchers at INRAE have developed a method to assess how frequently the conditions of lowest yield years—such as 2003, 2016 or 2024—could occur by the end of the century under different climate scenarios. Their results, published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, show that, in a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions, droughts and heatwaves could become 3 to 6 times more frequent, depending on the region. Moreover, mild winters followed by excessively wet springs could become up to 12 times more frequent in northern France, directly affecting wheat yields. In a scenario of moderate climate change—corresponding to low greenhouse gas emissions and in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement—climate risks would remain similar to current conditions. A better understanding of how these major risks may evolve in the coming decades would enable breeders, farmers and industry stakeholders to anticipate changes, adapting their variety selection strategies and agricultural practices accordingly.
Published on 10 February 2026
Extreme weather events, such as excessively mild winters, overly wet springs or heatwaves combined with drought, affect wheat harvests. With climate change, these events—which historically occurred once every 10 years—could become far more frequent and even occur simultaneously. Years marked by heavy losses in wheat yields are often the result of a succession of extreme weather events. In 2016, for example, an abnormally mild winter was followed by a very wet spring. The effects of heatwaves are exacerbated by droughts and vice versa. INRAE researchers developed a method combining wheat variety development models for early and late varieties, historical climate data, IPCC climate projections and statistical modelling, which enables them to estimate both the frequency of climate risks and the probability of experiencing the “worst harvest years” (see box) through 2100.
Increased climate risks under high greenhouse gas emissions
The study’s most striking finding is the dramatic shift in the frequency of extreme climate events under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario through 2100. Extreme events that were historically considered ‘rare’ become ‘common’ in future climate data, and often occur at the same time. Simultaneous heatwaves and droughts could become three times more frequent in northern France and six times more frequent in southern France. Mild winters combined with very humid conditions—favourable to the development of wheat diseases and pests—could increase twelvefold in northern France and 2.5-fold in southern France. New climate risks may also emerge for wheat, such as early heat stress and excessively warm nights, both of which affect plant development and grain maturation. On the other hand, risks related to cold weather are expected to decline.
Under a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario, compatible with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, climate risks in 2100 would remain similar to current conditions. These results highlight the importance of taking action today to reduce our emissions and avoid much greater adaptation efforts in the future.
A better understanding of how the main risks will evolve in the coming decades should enable breeders, farmers and industry players to anticipate these changes. This data will provide them with the information they need to adapt varieties and agricultural practices accordingly, in order to secure long-term production in future climate conditions.
“For a long time, we designed dykes, dams and agricultural policies based on the ‘return period’ of extreme events. But in a rapidly changing climate, these benchmarks are no longer valid. We need to think of risk as an evolving curve, not as a constant, in order to better guide our efforts.”
Carina Furusho Percot, research engineer at INRAE's AgroClim unit and co-author of the study.
Defining the worst harvest years
To identify the worst harvest years, researchers analysed wheat yield data from 1980 to 2024 in France isolating yield variations unrelated to technological advances. A threshold of -10% relative to the average yield trend over this period was used to define years of low production. The years 2003, 2007, 2016 and 2024 stand out as the worst harvest years. These years were all marked by climatic conditions unfavourable to wheat: drought and heatwave in 2003, excessively mild winters, overly wet springs and insufficient sunshine in 2007, 2016 and 2024.
Reference
Aubry M. et al. (2026). From past exceptional extremes to frequent future risks: How climate change shapes the fate of common wheat in France, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 379, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111054
Study co-funded by Arvalis and the CLIMAE metaprogramme.