USDA assessment of European strategies associated to the Green Deal gives pessimistic view due to a simplistic approach

INRAE analysis: USDA study fails to look at full picture

A group of INRAE experts analysed the USDA study and showed that it fails to take into account all aspects of the European strategy. Indeed, it is based on an American model (6) that focuses on supply and markets, all other things being equal, and fails to include other parameters such as changing agricultural practices and food demand.  

• Drops in agricultural production

The USDA scenarios fail to factor in technological advances in their simulations. It is reasonable to expect that strides made in genetics will result in crops and livestock animals that are more resistant to biotic and abiotic stress by 2030.

The USDA study calculates the decrease in production that would result from EC targets for each agricultural product. But this calculation is made assuming that agricultural systems will remain unchanged. However, European strategy calls for a profound change of these systems, toward more efficient use of inputs, agroecological practices that rely less on inputs, and genetic improvements in plant and animal species.   All of these change levers would mitigate drops in agricultural production linked to a decrease in chemical inputs and a reduction in farmland.  

• Rising world prices

When demand is constant or growing, a drop in production automatically triggers a spike in prices. But in a coherent approach to agrifood systems, European strategy encourages lower demand, thanks to reduced calorie content and western diets less rich in animal products. The USDA report takes neither these changes in diet nor a reduction in food waste encouraged by the EC into account.

• Environmental and health costs of current practices left out of the equation

Lastly, the USDA report does not take into account the environmental and health costs of current agricultural practices (e.g. nitrogen, pesticides), which are significant and subject to more and more precise evaluations.

1. ^{Farm to fork strategy}
2. ^{2030 Biodiversity strategy}
3. ^{European Green Deal}
4. ^{United Nations Sustainable Development Goals}
5. ^{USDA-ERS: United State Department of Agriculture - Economic Research Service. Read the report here}
6. ^{GTAP-AEZ model Global Trade Analysis Project - AgroEcological Zone: model for general equilibrium of world economy developed by Purdue University.}