Sorghum may help European agriculture face climate change

Maize is the main cereal crop used in livestock feed, but its yields reached a relative all-time low in the EU this year¹. The time has come to rethink the use of this water-intensive crop. 

Sorghum is generally seen as a promising alternative to maize, given its tolerance of high temperatures and low water availability. The crop is frequently grown in arid areas, and most of its global production occurs in African countries (47%) and the United States (17%). 

In Europe, climate change is leading to much hotter conditions and water scarcity. Thus, the researchers behind this new study wanted to explore the potential for sorghum production in this continent, where the crop remains rare. At present, sorghum is grown on just 0.1% of European cropland. Furthermore, the use of sorghum in livestock feed has yet to be examined in Europe as a whole, as has the crop’s relationship with climate change.

Sorghum production in the face of climate change

The researchers found that, within Europe, climate change should have a positive overall impact on sorghum yields. However, there may be some regional variation, namely increased yields in northern Europe and slightly decreased yields in southern Europe. Depending on the specific climate change scenario, overall mean sorghum production should climb from 3 tonnes/ha under current climatic conditions to 3.4–3.8 tonnes/ha under future climate conditions (i.e., by 2050–2100). Geographical areas with high and stable sorghum production are predicted to expand—increasing from 22% of European cropland under current climatic conditions to 29–34% by the end of the century.

Therefore, the results of this study indicate that, if grown one year out of three, sorghum could potentially replace around 90% of the maize currently used in livestock feed. Sorghum represents a climate-resilient alternative to maize, given its robustness when temperatures are high and water is scarce. In contrast, maize is frequently irrigated (38% of irrigated cropland in France is growing maize²).

Employing historical data to predict future trends

As part of the study, the researchers used a machine-learning model capable of predicting grain sorghum yields based on key climate parameters (e.g., relative humidity, temperature, precipitation). The model was trained on historical sorghum yields³ and then coupled with the climate data to generate predictions for two future target periods: the mid- and late 21st century. To this end, the researchers employed 20 climate change scenarios, which had themselves been generated using 5 climate models⁴. As a result, they were able to arrive at robust conclusions regarding potential sorghum production.

The study's results highlight that sorghum could help European agriculture adapt to climate change. Within France, sorghum production and the crop’s use in livestock feed could help deal with major challenges, such as the management of water resources. The water saved could be utilised for other crops, with a view to increasing feed self-sufficiency in France. 

Notes: 

1. According to France’s official statistics on agriculture, food, forestry, and fisheries (source: Agreste), the most recent estimate of maize production was 49.1 million tonnes, which is the first time that this figure has dropped below 50 million tonnes in 16 years (AFP, Sept. 9, 2026).
2. https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/lirrigation-des-surfaces-agricoles-evolution-entre-2010-et-2020 
3. The historical yield data came from grain sorghum grown in different counties or departments in France, Italy, Spain, and the United States between 2000 and 2020. Overall, there were 11,644 data points obtained across a wide range of climatic zones.
4. Climate models provide a representation of the climate that is based on mathematics and informatics and that draws on the laws of physics, fluid dynamics, and chemistry. They are created using real data.