Food, Global Health Reading time 4 min
African swine fever: a novel model for assessing transmission between domestic pigs and wild boar
PRESS RELEASE - Researchers from INRAE, ENVT and ANSES have developed an innovative multi-host model, drawing on data from a previous outbreak in Romania. The findings, published in Nature Communications, reveal bidirectional transmission between domestic pigs and wild boars.
Published on 31 March 2026
African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most devastating diseases affecting domestic pigs and wild boars worldwide. Since its introduction into Europe, this deadly virus has spread widely, threatening pig production and causing significant economic losses. Understanding the mechanisms of transmission between domestic pigs and wild boars is essential for developing effective control strategies. However, this has proven to be highly challenging—not only due to the multiple transmission pathways between animals and farms, but also because surveillance data on ASF in wild boar populations remain limited.
Researchers from INRAE, ENVT and ANSES have developed an innovative multi-host epidemiological model incorporating both pig farms and wild boar habitats and calibrated using empirical outbreak data. The model uses detailed data from the first phase of the Romanian epidemic (June to December 2018), including farm registries, environmental data on wild boar distribution, and the temporal and spatial patterns of infection in both pig farms and wild boar populations. Romania has remained a major hotspot for ASF in Europe, accounting for 66% of reported pig farm outbreaks in the EU in 2024, according to the latest EFSA report1.
By calibrating the epidemiological model to the observed data, it was possible to infer the most plausible transmission pathways during this period of the Romanian epidemic and estimate the relative contribution of each.
The results indicate that approximately 60% of infections in pig farms originated from other infected farms, highlighting inter-farm transmission as the primary driver sustaining the outbreak. However, a substantial proportion of cases—around 27%—was attributed to nearby infected wild boar populations, underscoring the important role of wildlife as a source of infection and the need for stronger biosecurity to reduce contact at the wildlife-domestic interface.
In wild boar populations, approximately 40% of infections were associated with neighbouring infected farms, highlighting the bidirectional nature of transmission between domestic and wild hosts.
Researchers were able to conclude that areas with high forest cover—favourable habitats for wild boars—played a key role in the spread and persistence of the ASF virus within wild boar populations.
The results demonstrate that the spread of ASF in Romania cannot be explained by inter-farm transmission alone. Moreover, these findings represent a significant step toward more effective management of emerging diseases transmitted between domestic and wild species, particularly in Europe.
1. https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/j.efsa.2025.9436
ASF in Europe
In January 2014, the first outbreak in the European Union was detected in Lithuania, followed by additional reports in Poland, Latvia, and Estonia. Since 2020, the virus has continued its westward spread across Europe, affecting Germany (2020), mainland Italy (2022), and Spain (2025).
Since 1 July 2025: 758 domestic and 6,902 wild outbreaks have been detected in Europe.
Monthly incidence (from 23 February 2026 to 22 March 2026): 17 domestic and 716 wild outbreaks detected, including 242 in Poland, 108 in Italy and 60 in Germany.
reference
Hayes B., Vergne T., Rose N., Mortasivu., Andraud M. (2026). A multi-host mechanistic model of African swine fever emergence and control in Romania. Nature Communications, DOI: https://www.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70769-6